Zogby Analytics poll says Trump vs Biden race is close

Right now President Donald Trump is trailing former Vice President Joe Biden 44% to 40% in the latest Zogby Analytics presidential poll.

In third place is Libertarian nominee Dr. Jo Jorgensen (5%) in fourth place is Green Party nominee Howie Hawkins (2%) and 9% of likely voters surveyed were not sure. 

Trump was beating Biden in the east (Trump leads 43% to 41%) and south regions (Trump leads 44% to 37%), while Biden was beating the president in the all important Central Great Lakes (Biden leads 48% to 38%) and western regions (Biden leads 50% to 34%).

Biden was crushing Trump with younger voters aged 18-29 by more than a two to one margin (Biden leads 49% to 20%), while the Republican incumbent was winning slightly with voters over 30 (Trump leads 45% to 42%).

When it came to party affiliation, Biden performed better with Independents (Biden leads 36% to 31%), while each candidate received at least 82% of their respective parties’ support.

Interestingly, among Independents, Zogby asked if they lean Republican (71% would vote for Trump), lean Democrat (72% would vote for Biden) or have no lean at all.

Among those who said no lean, these are also swing voters, Trump was winning slightly 30% to 28% against Biden.

Biden held healthy advantages among large city voters (Biden leads 46% to 41%), suburban voters (Biden leads 49% to 34%), suburban women (Biden leads 53% to 31%), and suburban parents (Biden leads 45% to 40%), which are groups that will all play a big role in the upcoming presidential election.

Trump performed better among consumers, such as, weekly Walmart Shoppers (Trump leads 56% to 36%), weekly Amazon shoppers (Trump leads 49% to 41%), NASCAR fans (Trump leads 50% to 33%), urban men (Trump leads 47% to 40%), urban parents (Trump leads 52% to 34%) and small city voters (Trump leads 44% to 36%).

Right now the one group to look at is swing voters.

Zogby defines swing voters as those who voted for Obama in 2012 and then switched to Trump in 2016.

Of these swing voters, Trump leads Biden by a three to one margin (65% to 21%).

Why is this important for Trump? In 2016 these voters comprised of nearly 6 million voters, and nearly all of these voters were white, and many lived in rust belt and mid-western states.

Zogby concludes that Trump is not down for the count yet.

“Most political observers point to turnout and a lack of enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton’s candidacy, among other things, as major factors for her defeat in the 2016 presidential election to Donald Trump,” said John Zogby. “Pundits also agree Democrats must win back swing voters (voters who voted for Obama in 2012 and then switched to Trump in 2016) in order to reclaim the presidency and Senate in 2020. “

“While swing voters are going to play an important role in the November presidential election, they are not the only factor associated with how the presidential election will be won by either Joe Biden or Donald Trump,” said Zogby. “For Biden, this means banking on youth discontentment and hoping the anger in the streets of cities across the nation will translate into a big voter turnout for the Democrats.”

“For Trump, it means hoping swing voters stay in his column and he improves his performance with suburban voters,” said Zogby. “Both scenarios are easier said than done for each candidate.”

Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, pollster John Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions. 

In addition to serving on the advisory boards of the Arab American Institute and Upstate Venture Connect, he is director of the Keenan Center for Entrepreneurship at Le Moyne College.

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