December’s global Consumer Confidence National Index score fell slightly from both October and November (each 50.5) to 50.1.
The National Index is a measure of consumer attitudes in 24 countries regarding the current and future state of local economies, personal finances, savings, and confidence to make large investments fielded monthly by Ipsos Public Affairs.
These findings are based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in an ongoing survey that has conducted 17,500 interviews of adults aged 18-64 in the United States, Canada, and Israel adults aged 16-64 in the index’s 21 other countries monthly since January 2010.
The National Index was led by China (70.7), India (64.3), Sweden (63.1) and the U.S. (60.5). Both China and India experienced a significant increase (+2.4 percentage points) and decrease (-2.4 percentage points) over the last three months, respectively. Italy (37.8), Turkey (38.8), and South Africa (39.5) were the index’s low scorers.
Below the primary National Index are three sub-indices, including the Jobs Index reflecting perceptions of job security, the Expectations Index reflecting economic expectations, and the Investment Index reflecting perceptions of the country’s investment climate.
December’s 2017 Jobs Index (57.3) showed a 3-month increase of 0.4 points from September (56.9) and is up 2.4 points from this time last year. Argentina saw the largest gains from over the last three month increasing 4.7 percentage points since September. Turkey (42.9) opposingly saw the largest decrease (-5.1 percentage points) over the same period. China continues to be atop the index at 70.8, followed closely by the U.S. (70.7) and Sweden (70.6). Brazil, likewise, continued to record the lowest index score at 32.1.
The Expectations Index increased slightly over the last three months rising from 58.0 to 58.2. Of the only two countries to achieve a score of over 70, both China (+1.0 percentage points) and India (-1.2 percentage points) saw minimal changes over the past three months. Turkey (45.2) and South Africa (47.0) once again had the lowest scores as they also had recorded in both October and November.
Lastly, the Investment Index trended similarly to the other sub-indices increasing to 43.8, led by China (69.4), India (65.3), and Sweden (59.8) who once again topped the index. However, India’s (65.3) has experienced a significant decrease (-3.7 percentage points) while China (69.4) has experienced a significant increase (+3.3 percentage points) over the last three months. Argentina (47.6) and Belgium (41.7) both experienced 5 percentage point increases over the last 3 months – the largest increases of the index. Italy (28.1), Japan (29.1), and Hungary (32.0) were the low scorers for the month.
About the Study
These findings are based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers from 24 countries via Ipsos’ Global @dvisor online survey platform. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 17,500+ adults aged 18-64 in the United States of America, Canada, and Israel, and age 16-64 in all 21 other countries each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain and the USA, and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden and Turkey.
Data collected each month are weighted so that each country’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the country’s most recent census data. Data collected each month are also weighted to give each country an equal weight in the total “global” sample. Online surveys can be taken as representative of the general working age population in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the United States. Online samples in Brazil, China, India, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey are more urban, more educated and/or more affluent than the general population and the results should be viewed as reflecting the views of a more “connected” population.
Sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The precision of the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. Here, the poll has a credibility interval of +/- 2.0 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 3,000+ and +/- 2.9 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 1,500+. For more information on the Ipsos use of credibility intervals, please click here.
The results reported each month in the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (go to https://financial.thomsonreuters.com/en/products/data-analytics/market-data/indices/ipsos-surveys.html) are based only on that month’s data (hence, the base for each country is 500+ or 1,000+) and comparisons are made against results from other months which are also each based on one month’s data. In contrast, the results reported any given month in Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence at-a-Glance are based on data collected not only that month, but also during to the two previous months and consist of past 3-month “rolling averages”. This technique allows for tripling the sample size for each metric. Hence, the base for any country ranges from 1,500+ to 3,000+. This increases the reliability of the findings and the statistical significance of reported variations over time, However, to heighten the freshness of the findings reported any given month, the data from the same month is given a weight of 45%, the data from the previous month a lesser weight of 35%, and the data from the earliest of the three months an even lesser weight of 20%.
The Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month for each of the 24 countries surveyed consist of a “Primary Index” based on all 11 questions below and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 11 questions. Those sub-indices include an Expectations Index; Investment Index; and, Jobs Index.
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