Bernie Sanders leads in 2020 Democratic primary poll

A new Zogby Analytics poll puts Hillary Clinton’s former primary rival ahead of other key Democrats to face Donald Trump in 2020.

The survey found that Bernie Sanders is the number one favourite among Democratic primary and caucus voters.

Poll respondents were presented with a hypothetical range of candidates and were asked to pick who they would vote for.

Progressive giant and independent senator from Vermont Bernie Sanders came out best, with 28% of respondents choosing him.

In second place, came Elizabeth Warren on 12% followed by former Vice President Joe Biden.

Mark Zuckerberg, who has been talked about as a future presidential candidate, was chosen by 7% of the respondents, and is followed by Kamala Harris, a new senator from California. CNN reports that Harris has co-sponsored Bernie Sanders’ progressive single-payer healthcare plan.

A further 23% of respondents said they were not sure while the other four hypothetical candidates were picked by 3% or less of respondents.

Analysis:

Overall, the poll suggests that Bernie Sanders’ 2016 movement has had a significant effect on the party. Sanders is the favourite amongst Democratic primary voters and some of his key progressive allies such as Warren and Harris have also made an impact.

However, the primaries are not for another two three years so preferences can and will change. Furthermore, the inclusion of Mark Zuckerberg, who realistically won’t run arguably distorts the poll’s quasi-realistic credibility.

On top of this, it is worth noting that the sample of Democratic primary voters is small (356), meaning that the margin of error is relatively high. Still, it suggests that progressives such as Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris are making some headway. The 2020 Democratic primary is the left of the party’s to lose.

The results of the poll can be viewed here.

The Zogby Analytics online survey of 834 likely US voters, including a subset of 356 likely Democratic presidential primary voters, reveals Democratic primary voters are still excited about the prospect of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders winning the nomination.

Zogby tested a potential primary showdown among an expanded list of 2020 Democratic hopefuls (please see chart below) and the Independent Senator from Vermont still maintains his momentum among Democrats, which had him in a close fight against Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic race for the nomination.

In addition to testing a hypothetical 2020 Democratic presidential primary, Zogby also examined how well the unofficial candidates performed among their minority base; over-samples of minority Democratic presidential primary voters were also conducted.

Zogby said the overall vote: Bernie Sanders (Ind. Senator Vt.) leads (28%) his closest competitors, former Vice President Joe Biden (17%) and Elizabeth Warren (Democratic Senator Mass.-12%).

No other name receives double digits, but nearly a quarter of primary voters are not sure who they would vote for.

Sanders is the most popular candidate among almost every sub-group. There are instances where Biden and Warren outshine Sanders, such is the case with older voters (age 50+), where Biden is more popular or in the case of creative class voters-working in STEM or other professional sectors-who favor Warren.

Among the Democratic base, which consists of women voters, younger voters, voters living in large cities and many minority voters; Sanders performs well among all of these groups. Among women, Sanders beat Warren with a ratio of more than 3 to 1 and Biden almost 2 to 1.

When it came to younger Millennial voters age 18-29, Sanders (42%) dominates. He beats Warren (22%) nearly 2 to 1 and Joe Biden (12%) 3 to 1.

This pattern changes among African American primary voters.

Among Zogby’s oversample of 247 African American Democratic presidential primary voters, Biden is the clear favorite at 31%, followed by Sanders (19%) and there is a three way tie between Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Mark Zuckerberg at 6% each.

It must be noted a quarter of voters (26%) were not sure of who they would vote for.

The former vice president leads every meaningful African American subgroup, including younger African American voters, while Sanders trails in second place among almost every sub-group.

Sanders does tighten things up to a virtual tie among African Americans who have a college degree and African American men.

Zogby also conducted an oversample of Hispanic (240 primary voters) and Asian Democratic presidential primary voters (121 voters).

When Zogby examined Hispanic Democratic primary voters, Bernie Sanders (41%) is back on top.

He dominates Joe Biden (14%) and Elizabeth Warren (6%). This trend also continues among all meaningful Hispanic primary sub-groups; Sanders gets a whopping 71% among younger Hispanic primary voters age 18-29. Bernie Sanders also beats Warren and Biden, both 2 to 1 among Asian Democratic presidential primary voters.

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