Hillary Clinton is currently ahead of Donald Trump by 6 points among likely voters according to the Monmouth University Poll. This is down from the 12 point lead she had in mid-October but slightly larger than the 4 point lead she had in September.
Very few voters, though, say that they have changed their vote because of breaking news in the last several days. The latest Monmouth University Poll also finds the vast majority of voters believe that the election outcome will be determined fairly rather than because the system was rigged.
Currently, 50% of likely voters support Clinton and 44% back Trump, with 4% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson and 1% backing Jill Stein of the Green Party. Clinton held a larger 50% to 38% lead before the final presidential debate in mid-October and a slimmer 46% to 42% edge right before the first debate in late September.
Only 4% of registered voters say they learned something in the past ten days that caused them to change their vote. The major movement was a drop in the number of undecided and third party votes and an increase in Trump support.
“A key finding in the poll is that Clinton’s vote share continues to hover near the 50 percent mark while Trump’s support has been more volatile,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Trump currently leads among white voters by 54% to 37% mainly due to a 59% to 30% advantage among white men. He leads by a much smaller margin of 49% to 44% among white women. Clinton has a 79% to 13% advantage among non-white voters.
Regardless of who they support, a majority of voters nationwide (57%) think that Clinton will probably emerge as the victor on Tuesday. Just 28% think Trump will win. Clinton voters (87%) are more confident than Trump voters (62%) that their candidate will be the president-elect.
Among those who believe Clinton will triumph, 84% say she will win fair and square while 11% say she will win mainly because the system is rigged. Among those who believe Trump will prevail, 92% say he will win fair and square while 4% say he will win mainly because the system is rigged.
“A very small number of voters anticipate a rigged election despite all the buzz about this being a concern,” said Murray.
The Monmouth University Poll also finds that 70% of voters would have preferred that the Republican nominee was someone other than Trump and 62% of voters would have preferred that the Democratic nominee was someone other than Clinton.
Slightly more Trump voters (46%) than Clinton voters (40%) wish that the party nominee they are actually casting their vote for was someone other than the candidate whose name appears on their ballots.
“It is a telling sign of the sad state of this election that nearly half of both Clinton and Trump voters seem to want a do-over for their party’s nominee,” said Murray.
In other poll results, Clinton’s personal rating has declined slightly since October while Trump’s rating has ticked up. Currently, 37% of all likely voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 54% have an unfavorable view of her. This compares with a 41% favorable to 50% unfavorable likely voter rating last month. A similar 34% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Trump and 55% have an unfavorable view of him. This is up from a 27% favorable to 62% unfavorable likely voter rating last month.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from November 3 to 6, 2016 with 802 registered voters in the United States. The results in this release based on all registered voters have a margin of error of + 3.5 percent. Results based on likely voters only have a margin of error of + 3.6 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
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